Archive for December, 2020

Understanding Trump Voters – Why We are Doomed to 4 Years of Contention

Posted by Troy on 18th December 2020 in Uncategorized

Imagine you have a bet with a friend.  You will flip a coin 100 times or until the first person reaches 50.  You’re Heads.  They are Tails.  The loser pays the winner $10,000 (or whatever amount that would hurt you but not completely ruin you).

The score is 49 Heads and 40 Tails.

You take the coin out of your pocket and flip 10 times… and it comes up Tails every time!  There’s about a 3% chance of this actually happening.  Would you pay?  Most likely, but you would curse like a sailor.

Same thing, but your friend calls for a pause.  You run to the bathroom.  On the way back, your friend’s spouse needs help, so you pause and help them.  You get to the door, and it’s locked.  You call out, but they say there’s something wrong with the door and you have to get a janitor to get you in.  By the time you get in, they say they already flipped the coin ten times, and it came up Tails every time!  You say it doesn’t count because you weren’t in the room.  They point out in the rules for Coin Flipping where bathroom breaks are only for 10 minutes and they were allowed to start flipping.  They present you 10 photos of the coin on Tails.  You ask your other friends in the room if it came up 10 times, and they say that they had been forced to the other side of the gym during the flipping.  A few of them SWEAR they saw your friend flip over the coin prior to taking the photo.  You ask to examine the coin to make sure it wasn’t double-sided.  They say they disposed of the coin already (by some means that is irreversible).

Would you pay up?

God NO!

You go to court, and the court asks you for proof.  You present the case above.  The judge tells you that those were the rules in the rulebook at the time, and that your friends’ testimony about “witnessing” the fraud is merely antidotal.  You bring up the fact of how unlikely it was to occur.  The judge says… “But it COULD have happened, right?”  The media says you have to accept the results for the good of sportsmanship everywhere.  Everyone in the world tells you that you are crazy!  You are forced by the courts to pay up.

In any sane world, the changing of the rule that allows the opportunity to cheat, the oddities regarding the delays that prevented you to get back, the antidotal stories, and the destruction of all evidence collectively means that there was cheating, especially when statistics say the event is so unlikely.  Even if you are forced to pay, you will go to grave saying that they cheated, and it doesn’t matter if the entire world is against you.

That is where Trump Voters are right now.

Statistics ARE proof.  It was used quite famously in a case regarding forgery that I am aware of.  In Wisconsin, they had 120,000 straight votes for Biden.  Assuming 99.99% of votes were for Biden (ridiculous assumption), the odds of that occurring are 1 out of 162,852 (approximately the same of flipping Tails 17 times in a row).

Biden supporters would reply… but it COULD have happened.  They will say that all Trump voters voted in person and all Biden voters voted by mail.  Which actually doesn’t pan out or you would have seen a larger win by Trump on election night in ALL states… but you didn’t, did you?  Because statistics matter!  Numbers are real things.  It is odd, is it not, that Biden won in four states that all stopped counting at about the same time of night, all had large influxes of ballots, many of these ballots only had Biden selected and nothing else (almost as though they were pressed for time and had to fill out thousands and thousands of ballots in a few hours…) which happened pretty much only in those four cities, and so forth and so forth.  Statistics matter.

But the Biden response is always… “But it COULD have happened.  Maybe these four cities JUST HAPPENED to buck all the trends and numbers and statistics that all other cities of similar demographics etc etc etc happened to follow.  It COULD have happened.  Prove it didn’t.  Oh… by the way, we pretty much made it impossible to prove because we separated the ballots from their envelopes… sooooo…”

So, if Biden takes office in January, Trump supporters will NOT acknowledge him as legitimate.  If Trump stays in power by whatever means, Biden supporters will say that he is a dictator that subverted the Constitution.

That is why we are doomed to 4 years of contention.

Long Live the Constitution!